6 March 2023
INTRODUCTION by Ambasador Marjan Šetinc
Much is written and heard recently of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, the Serbian president, is often on our screens and in the media. Kosovo, engaging with the EU, relations with Croatia, relations with Russia, with China, war in Ukraine, thousands of migrants passing through the country on their way to the EU, good relations with Victor Orban, mini Schengen, all these and more are putting Serbia into an unfortunate almost impossible challenges.
After World War II, Yugoslavia was a guarantor of stability in the Balkans. With the end of the Cold War, Yugoslavia lost this strategic sense. Disintegration began when the preceding motives for maintaining a common state were exhausted. It would probably have looked different if Yugoslavia had become a member of the EU, a possibility that was evident in the 1980s. Nevertheless, the countries that emerged on the territory of Yugoslavia, the entire Balkans, which is not yet in the EU, see their future in the EU. However, this process is not going smoothly for any of these countries, all face a political reality, both internal and external, that is constantly changing and requires new considerations and adaptations. In this region, as we can see every day, the interests of global players are in constant conflict, starting from the EU, the Russian Federation, China, the US, Turkey… and others (NATO, Germany, Italy…).
Serbia, the largest of the Balkan aspirants for the EU, has lately found itself in the grip of an extremely complex political reality. With its support for Ukraine in the war with Russia, the EU’s strategic orientation has changed and united, putting it in conflict with Serbia’s strategic friend – the Russian Federation. Serbia as it seems stopped further negotiations on chapters of the acquis, at least we do not hear anything about the negotiations – which have now become a less important formality. Serbia is being ”forced” by the EU tonegotiate with Kosovo, which she does not recognize, due to EU demands to resolve conflictual issues with Kosovo if it wants to join the EU… So, Serbia has found itself in a bind whereas it may have to give up its historic friendship with Russia if it wants to be friends with the EU and the West… What choice Serbia has? Which political arguments will prevail, will economic calculations prevail, or something unpredictable might happen we at this moment do not foresee?
Ms Janja Klasinc, renown Slovenian journalist, writer, translator, diplomat, former reporter from Belgrade, spoke and discussed these questions and the situation in which Serbia presently has found itself.