Germany – Crucial Election?

Germany – Crucial Election? (Bojan Grobovšek)
20 February 2025

Video available on YouTube (in Slovenian): https://youtu.be/hmA25DVb-jc

Germany – Crucial Election?

Opening Remarks
Author: Ambassador Marjan Šetinc
20 February 2025

Discussion hosted by the Slovenian Society for International Relations (SDMO) focused on analyzing and understanding the situation in Germany, just three days before the extraordinary/early parliamentary elections.

Expert insights were provided by Ambassador Bojan Grobovšek, a longtime observer of German politics and honorary president of SDMO. He has served as Slovenia’s ambassador to Poland, Argentina, and Switzerland and was previously a foreign affairs commentator for Slovenian media in Vienna and beyond. Grobovšek is also author of several books, including the well-known “Why Slovenia is Not Switzerland”, as well as “Peace Movements and Euro Missiles – Between Emotions and Real Politics”, “Reflections on Slovenia”, and “Homo Diplomaticus Slovenicus”. His most recent book, “Trieste, Ljubljana, Vienna, and the Wider World”, serves as a kind of autobiography.

The discussion was moderated and introduced by Ambassador Marjan Šetinc, president of SDMO.

A Political and Economic Crisis in Germany

These elections are a product of the ongoing political and economic crisis that has gripped Germany for the past few years. The election timing coincides with Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency. Germany’s crisis is deeply tied to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and the cutoff of Russian gas due to sanctions—partly exacerbated by Germany’s abandonment of nuclear power.

Germany is the most significant political and economic player in the EU and a key global economy. Measured by nominal GDP and purchasing power per capita, Germany ranks as the world’s fifth-largest economy.

  • In 2020, Germany’s GDP accounted for 25.60% of the EU’s total GDP.
  • By 2021, this share had dropped to 25.11%.
  • In 2023, it fell below 25% (24.68%), and projections for 2025 estimate it at just 24.60%—a full percentage point lower than in 2020.

According to Eurostat, Germany’s projected nominal GDP for 2025 is $4.992 trillion USD, while the total EU GDP is estimated at $20.290 trillion USD.

Germany comprises 8.43% of the EU’s land area (357,022 km²) and 18.58% of its population. For comparison, Slovenia represents only 0.48% of the EU’s land area, 0.47% of its population, and 0.36% of its GDP ($83.5 billion USD). Despite its small size, Slovenia once accounted for 8% of Yugoslavia’s population, 8% of its land area, and over 20% of its GDP.

Regardless, Germany remains the “powerhouse of the EU”. Its economic strength and stability are directly tied to the strength and stability of the European Union.

Political and Economic Shifts

Since the last elections three and a half years ago, Germany’s political and economic landscape has changed dramatically.

  • The Trump administration (2017–2021) imposed tariffs on German (and broader EU) exports, especially targeting German cars, and actively worked to block the Nord Stream gas pipeline.
  • At the end of 2021, the West rejected Russian proposals for a strategic agreement with NATO and the U.S., worsening relations with Russia.
  • A series of global crises followed:
    • The COVID-19 pandemic
    • The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan (August 2021), leading to the Taliban’s return to power
    • Ongoing wars in Syria, Ukraine, and Palestine
    • The Biden administration’s continuation of Trump-era policies, including:
      • Maintaining additional tariffs
      • Recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem
    • Western sanctions against Russia and the shift from Russian gas to more expensive U.S. LNG
    • Increasing migration pressures, adding to the over one million refugees already accepted under Angela Merkel’s government

All of these factors have contributed to the political and economic turmoil under Chancellor Scholz’s government. According to public opinion polls, this crisis has led to a surge in support for far-right political forces in Germany.

A Shift to the Right?

Germany appears to be under dark clouds—with a crisis-driven election that some see as coming at the wrong moment. However, perhaps it is happening at precisely the right time.

Mass protests against right-wing populism have erupted across Germany.

What does this mean for the country?

  • Which direction will Germany take?
  • Will rational decision-making prevail among voters?
  • Will voters manage to critically assess the overwhelming issues at stake?

The Polling Landscape

Compared to the 2021 election, polling data (Poll of Polls) shows a dramatic shift in party preferences:

Year

SPD

CDU/CSU

Greens

FDP

AfD

Left

BSW
2021 25.7% 24.1% 14.7% 11.4% 10.4% 4.9% N/A
2025 16% 29% 13% 4% 21% 7% 5%

Voter turnout in 2021: 76.4%
Parliamentary seats in 2021: 735 (1 seat for SSW)
Projected seats in 2025: 630

The political landscape in 2021 leaned more to the left, whereas today, it has shifted significantly to the right.

Key Election Issues

  1. Fear of Immigration
    • The far right is capitalizing on anti-immigrant sentiment, blaming migrants for:
      • Taking jobs
      • Committing crimes (the narrative includes accusations of theft and sexual violence)
    • Far-right rhetoric spreads unchecked misinformation, making it easy for voters to accept these narratives uncritically.
    • Overlooked fact: Many migrants take on jobs that native Germans do not want.
  2. Economic and Security Concerns
    • American tariffs on German goods
    • Russia as a geopolitical threat
    • Military spending and rearmament policies
    • Germany’s stance on the war in Gaza
    • Germany’s military support for Poland and NATO commitments (e.g., German troops in Lithuania)

Final Considerations

  • How have recent years changed Germany?
  • Which issues are shaping voter sentiment?
  • Can last-minute debates shift voter decisions?
  • How will Trump’s policies influence German voters?
  • Can German media still sway public opinion?
  • What role will immigrant communities (e.g., Turks, Croats, Bosnians) play in the election outcome?

As 20% of voters remained undecided, and 7% planned to decide at the polling station, the final election outcome remained uncertain.

Ambassador Bojan Grobovšek provided in-depth analysis of how far Germany might shift to the right in this crucial election.