AUSTRIA AFTER THE ELECTIONS 2024, panel discussion with dr. Marjan Šturm
4 November 2024
Video in Slovenian https://youtu.be/o5rJ8LK6kKU?si=7U-tSIUHkYS9b9Lv
Introductory note by Ambassador Marjan Šetinc
Discussion was organized in collaboration with the Slovenian Association for International Relations (SDMO), the Institute for Ethnic Studies (SIM), the Slovenian Emigrant Association, and the Club of Carinthian Slovenes. The guest speaker was Dr. Marjan Šturm, a historian, politician, and long time activist for Carinthian Slovenes. Many of us have encountered him or collaborated with him over the years. He is also a member of SDMO.
The meeting was moderated by Dr. Boris Jesih, President of SIM, and Amb. Marjan Šetinc, President of SDMO, and consisted of two parts. The first part focused on the presentation and discussion of the guest’s recently published book, “Identität ohne Feindbild: Von der Konfrontation zur Friedensvermittlung in Kärnten und in der Alpen-Adria-Region”(“Identity Without an Enemy Image: From Confrontation to Peace Mediation in Carinthia and the Alpine-Adriatic Region”), presented by Dr. Danijel Grafenauer. The second part was devoted to the analysis of the political situation in Austria by Dr. Šturm, particularly after the rise of the extreme right Freedom Party (FPÖ) in the federal elections on September 29, 2024.
Following are a few insights into Austria’s political landscape and international stance.
The extreme right conservative forces are gaining power across Europe, thus forcing moderate conservatives to follow. The moderate conservatives are following the far-right rhetoric to maintain power: by opposing illegal immigration, advocating for border closures, and spreading a narrative of threats—both internal and external. Media-driven fear amplifies this tendency which fuels far-right movements.
The above pattern is present in all countries bordering Slovenia and, to some extent, in Slovenia itself. Austria’s federal elections on September 29, 2024, brought the extreme right Freedom Party (FPÖ) to the forefront, securing its highest-ever support (28.9%). The Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), a long-time leading party, fell behind with their lowest post-war result (21.1%). The People’s Party (ÖVP), Austria’s second historically most dominant party, also recorded its third-lowest result in 24 post-war elections – 26,3%.
In Carinthia where Slovenians live from 6th century and have been heavily assimilated by the nationalistic Germanisation in the past more than 100 years, FPÖ received 38.4% of the vote, the highest score among all Austrian regions—very significant shift from the 2023 regional elections (SPÖ: 38.94%, ÖVP: 17.04%, FPÖ: 24.53%, Team Carinthia: 10.08%). This raises serious questions: Has Carinthia experienced a political shift? Could nationwide trends influence regional dynamics?
President Van der Bellen tasked Karl Nehammer, leader of the ÖVP and the current Austria’s chancellor, with forming a coalition government. The outcome of the coalition negotiations remains uncertain. Despite FPÖ’s strong performance, their leader Herbert Kickl was not awarded the mandate. However, FPÖ’s significant parliamentary presence—57 seats out of 183—and control of the Parliament’s presidency, held by Walter Rosenkranz, will exert considerable pressure on the new coalition. Reaching compromises will be a serious test for the anticipated coalition.
If Mr. Nehammer successfully forms a coalition—likely involving significant compromises, may be using the FPÖ as a bargaining chip—the internal and foreign policies of Austria may change significantly. This raises several questions:
- Neutrality: How will Austria’s traditional neutrality evolve?
- Relations with neighbors: How will Austria engage with neighboring countries, particularly Slovenia?
Minority rights are another concern. Can we expect proactive policies to preserve minority rights and limit assimilation, especially concerning Carinthian Slovenes? Is such a change feasible?
Broader foreign policy issues are also at stake:
- What stance will Austria take on the war in Ukraine and maintain its neutrality?
- How will it navigate relations with Israel, the U.S., Russia, and migration policies?
The ÖVP and SPÖ, along with smaller parties like NEOS and the Greens, are keen to avoid repeating the scenario following the 1999 coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ. The 1999 coalition government led to Austria’s isolation within the EU which among others restricted its voting rights. Avoiding a similar outcome will be crucial in coalition negotiations.
Analysis and discussion by Dr. Marjan Šturm is available in the video in the Slovenian language.